The New Bitcoin Market: From Cycles to Structural Demand
TL;DR: Bitcoin's 2025 market is now driven more by ETF inflows and institutional mandates than by halving-based speculation—making self-custody more important than ever.
Key takeaways
- Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries have absorbed significant supply, dampening retail-driven volatility.
- The classic four-year halving cycle is weakening as macro and capital-flow dynamics take over.
- Investors should pair ETF exposure with native self-custody using hardware wallets like Ledger.
What changed in 2025
Bitcoin crossed $126,000 in October 2025 before correcting, but the real story is structural. The 2024 halving cut block rewards to 3.125 BTC, yet this cycle's price moves have been smaller in percentage terms than previous halvings [1]. Why? Institutional buyers—via spot ETFs and corporate treasuries—now set the marginal price, not retail speculators.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold around 1.36 million BTC (roughly 6.9% of circulating supply), with combined AUM exceeding $168 billion [1]. These flows are largely price-insensitive: retirement accounts, model portfolios, and dollar-cost-averaging programs keep buying regardless of short-term dips.
Regulation and institutional adoption
Regulatory clarity has accelerated institutional comfort. The approval of spot ETFs in 2024 signaled that Bitcoin is now an "investable asset class" for mainstream portfolios [2]. Clearer custody, reporting, and AML/KYC standards have lowered compliance risk for pensions, insurers, and sovereign wealth funds.
The flip side: more dependence on regulated custodians and less privacy for those who rely exclusively on intermediaries. Bitcoin's cypherpunk roots are increasingly at odds with its Wall Street adoption.
What to do next
If you hold Bitcoin outside ETF wrappers, prioritize self-custody. Use a battle-tested hardware wallet—Ledger Nano X is the industry standard—and store your 24-word seed phrase offline in multiple secure locations. For tax tracking, tools like Koinly simplify reporting.